Agricultural products are expected to become the winter “winner”

This year, the performance of commodity differentiation, industrial metal among the biggest gainers, while energy, agricultural products decline.


CITIC Securities Research Department macro group analyst Zhu Jianfang, Cui Rong that this reflects the rise of some commodities more from the dollar and China-related supply side of the reform, the demand does improve but not significant. Nearly a month of energy, agricultural prices rebounded slightly, but the sustainability of concern.


Futures, the analyst is expected, according to experience, corn, eggs, soybeans, cotton, sugar and other varieties in the policy “window” before the performance may be, investors must pay close attention to the relevant agricultural policy trends.


According to our statistics, the fourth quarter of the large plate is usually outperforming the broader market, such as farming and seed industry, it is expected in the fourth quarter of this year, the two plates will usher in theme investment opportunities. “Haitong Securities Institute Ding frequency, Chen Xue Li, Chen Yang said.


From the valuation point of view, the current investment in agricultural stocks also have a certain margin of safety. Huazhen Securities analyst Wang Ying, Lu Zhe statistics, as of September 22, the agricultural sector absolute PE and absolute PB were 33.09 times and 3.41 times, and since 2010 the agricultural sector absolute PE and absolute PB historical mean 58.10 times and 3.91 times; the agricultural plate relative to the small plates PE and PB were 0.80 times and 0.88 times, the historical mean were 1.35 times and 0.98 times; agricultural plate relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300PE and PB were 2.34 times and 2.05 times, the historical average Respectively, 4.69 times and 2.20 times.


“Real estate investment leading industrial products for 6 months.With the real estate investment down trend established (for 4 consecutive months down) and for the expected compression capacity of the expected landing, the Chinese economy into the short period of decline in the future, black (iron ore, Coke, rebar) and other beta properties of strong bulk industrial products will enter the 1-2 years down short cycle, lithium, cobalt, nickel and other strong alpha metal will have the opportunity from the industry. “Day wind securities analysis Division Song Xuetao that the black line market is facing the end of agricultural products relative to the value of industrial products increased: the index of industrial products and agricultural products index gradually run to the historical limit near. The low elasticity of agricultural products is opening up.